In the complex and high-pressure environment of aircraft engine maintenance planning, an intelligent approach is critical. With civil aircraft costing many millions of dollars to buy and maintain over their decades of life in service, MRO programs must be as efficient as possible. Phil Cole, civil aviation business manager at Aerogility, a leading provider of maintenance scheduling systems, investigates.
Predictions are notoriously difficult but, in the world of civil aircraft engine maintenance, forecasting is essential. So many factors need to be considered and so many parties are involved, from engineering and maintenance personnel to MRO facilities, and from original equipment manufacturers and suppliers to lessors and financiers.
The goal is to meet everybody’s needs, finding the most cost-effective and business-conscious solution to schedule required services, upgrades and modifications, minimizing the overall impact on operations. The intense competition in the commercial airline industry means chief financial officers scrutinize every expense, seeking out any possible bottom-line gains, and the engine maintenance sector is no exception. Fortunately, intelligent MRO forecasting is developing at speed, changing the way the industry operates - maximizing efficiency and minimizing airline expenditure.
Balance is vital in engine MRO. If, for example, parts of a low-pressure compressor (LPC) need to be replaced by a certain date but parts of the low-pressure turbine (LPT) only need to be replaced by a different, later date, what should happen? Replacing all the LPC and LPT parts at once means throwing away perfectly good and expensive LPT parts not yet at the end of their life. But bringing in the engine for LPC maintenance on one date and then bringing in the engine again for LPT maintenance later is also an expensive and disruptive option.
‘Intelligent software agents’
A highly innovative approach to effective decision-making and scheduling is to use intelligent software agents in model-driven simulations – a technology that came out of research into AI. Put simply, these agents act on behalf of other parties, just as agents do in ordinary life. All the stakeholders and physical infrastructure of MRO can be represented by intelligent software agents, including every aircraft in a fleet (and its specific configurations and sub-systems) to decision-makers, such as the fleet and inventory managers, and maintenance and engineering facilities. In intelligent predictive software, the agents act autonomously in a simulation of a ‘what-if?’ scenario. The simulation results are precise forecasts and optimized schedules that fleet managers and planners can use to ensure future levels of aircraft availability and predictable costs.
Cooperation critical
No part of the aviation industry operates in isolation. With so many people involved in the MRO process, communication is important. Modern fleet maintenance planning technology integrates with, and exchanges data with, airline IT systems. Updates entered into IT infrastructure – on matters from the operational status of an aircraft to inventory levels and costing information – can automatically be delivered to the MRO system too. And each simulation generates data that can be exported to IT systems such as business intelligence data warehouses and operational systems or downloaded to products such as Microsoft Excel and Microsoft PowerPoint.
Handling peak season pressure
Airline aircraft availability is critical 24/7/365 but the pressure to keep aircraft flying is particularly intense during the highly competitive, and potentially lucrative, summer season. Planned maintenance must be scheduled accordingly, ensuring sufficient aircraft are available to meet the higher demand and keep services operating. Avoiding heavy base maintenance in the summer becomes critical, often bringing scheduled work forward to the off-peak season. Finding an aircraft unavailable in the peak season, for reasons relating to MRO, is simply no longer acceptable if that maintenance could have been rescheduled by using intelligent forecasting technology.
Adding real-time sensor data
Another exciting development could see maintenance scheduling systems receiving inflight data from engine sensors. Real-time data signals can, for example, warn a particular part is performing poorly or wearing more rapidly than expected, and so prompt a planner to set up an ‘early’ maintenance check to prevent a failure. The performance data that engines intelligently produce is constantly becoming more accurate and extensive to allow for more efficient and accurate maintenance.
The rapid evolution of MRO forecasting, particularly when using AI and intelligent software agents, is one of the most exciting aspects of modern civil aviation. And the journey is far from over. The scope and accuracy of maintenance planning technology is becoming more impressive every day.